If there is a single theme that flows consistently through this issue, it is the prospect of global economic recovery: when, where, and how will it happen? And while I’d like to say there’s 100 percent consensus that the global economy will hit its stride in the year ahead, economic signals remain mixed, as do the views of our writers.
According to an excellent panel of speakers at this year’s Annual Forecast dinner, things don’t look entirely bad. In fact, our panel of experts says that over the course of next year, investors should gradually feel better about prospects for economic growth. But they won’t feel great, according to Martin Barnes, Chief Economist at BCA Research, who argues that investors will remain cautious due to ongoing (and truly formidable) economic challenges that still need to be worked out.
Whether or not policymakers are equipped to tackle those challenges is the topic of “Regeneration vs. Degeneration,” where Rossa O’Reilly closely reads and discusses three books focused on the future of global growth and some of the endemic issues facing the west: Niall Ferguson’s recent The Great Degeneration (2013), Jonathan Macey’s The Death of Corporate Reputation: How Integrity Has Been Destroyed on Wall Street (2013), and Why the West Rules—For Now (2010), by Ian Morris. Ferguson argues that policymakers’ tools, gripped by both economic and social degeneration, are merely quack remedies applied to symptoms bred by larger problems. Until we get to the root of the problem (deep-rooted inequality and broken capitalism) it will be difficult for the world to attain any level of prosperity or true economic growth.
In the end, mixed signals for tough economic times. You can read the forecasts of all three panelists in “Advantage North America?” Clip a copy and reference it next year to see which predictions for the global economy have stood the test of time.