This year’s annual CFA Institute conference included a powerful presentation by Ian Bremmer, President of Eurasia Group, a global political risk research and consulting firm, and author of Superpower: Three Choices for America’s Role in the World. He focused on the roles of the U.S. and its allies, the rise of China, the political shift in Russia, and how these themes are changing geopolitical balances. However, layered throughout was the theme of global disruption.

Currently, the number of refugees in the world is higher than at any point since World War II. Meanwhile, terrorist regimes are increasing, and there has been a succession of failed states (e.g., Syria, Libya, Yemen). Global alliances have changed but, most important, the global dynamic has shifted from unstable and safe to unstable and dangerous. Long-held successful business models are being disrupted globally by new technology and empowerment. The rise of disruption is just beginning in geopolitics and in many cases is being underestimated by markets.

The U.S.

For the U.S., a lack of pressure to engage in long-term problem solving warns of a world in which Washington’s authority breaks down and increased power bleeds to the state level—a power structure that could eventually prove more resilient than the current one. The U.S.’s transatlantic relationships have weakened, as the U.K. no longer plays a leadership role, Germany proves more commercially oriented, and France has had little success engaging on a global scale. But even though U.S. foreign policy is declining in influence, the role of the U.S. itself is not.

Europe and Asia

For Europe, support for building European institutions has faded, leaving structural issues and politics as the most pressing concerns. In Asia, the rise of China is important from an economic perspective but less so from a military angle. China’s strategic global economic policy plan is underestimated. Russia is also underestimated but mainly for its ability to disrupt. It is likely to increase cyber threats and also likely to use force, as in Ukraine.

The Middle East

In the Middle East, instability continues and is likely to escalate, in part because no non-Middle Eastern country has chosen to play a fundamental role. This leaves countries within the Middle East to step up. Over time, tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia are likely to increase, as the Iranian nuclear deal brings oil to centre stage. A structurally weak Middle East with no stabilizing force is yet another potential disrupter.

The world order is shifting rapidly, but its power to disrupt is what might prove to be underestimated.