The Future of Geography: - CFA Society Toronto

The Future of Geography:

June 11, 2025

Journalism has long been called the first rough draft of history. Tim Marshall’s book on politics and space suggests that journalism can also sketch the future geography of our world. Marshall is a very successful best-selling writer, and he explains in everyday terms the science of humanity’s exploration of space. Most effectively, he shows how power and politics in space will likely change our world.

Geopolitics—the geography, politics, and international relations on Earth—have shaped our world up to this point, but now astropolitics—the geopolitics of outer space—are beginning to matter. There are contrasting views concerning the political future of space.

One view is that space belongs to humankind and is inherently beyond politics; hence, any benefit that comes from space exploration should be shared by all nations. Opposing this optimistic view, realists maintain that, without changes to human nature and an end to the widespread pursuit of nationalism, space cannot be protected from military use.

In the modern era, Marshall argues, there are three main independent spacefaring nations:

United States of America
China
Russia

How they choose to proceed will affect everyone on Earth. Soon, what happens in space will shape human history as geography and international politics have on Earth.

Rocket diplomacy

A decades-old space partnership between the US and Russia is beginning to unravel, ending a relationship that has benefited both science and détente between the two powers. Even before the war in Ukraine, Russia’s Western partners complained about Russian incompetence and behaviour.

In 2018, the Russian News Agency TASS accused, with no evidence, US astronaut Serena Auñón-Chancellor of having a mental breakdown aboard the International Space Station (ISS) and drilling a hole in a docked Soyuz capsule.

In 2021, a Russian space laboratory docked with the ISS, but shortly thereafter, its thrusters began firing and caused the ISS to spin uncontrollably until they ran out of ffuel. As the Ukraine war intensified, Dmitry Rogozin, head of the Russian space agency, Roscosmos, called US astronaut Scott Kelly a “moron” and threatened to leave Americans stranded on the ISS.

With increasing sanctions hitting the Russian economy and its growing isolation from world science and commerce, Roscosmos finds it difficult to compete. The war in Ukraine has made it more likely that Russia will step away from space exploration and, with China, focus on military applications in space.

Russia is still ahead of China in many facets of space technology, but China has the financial resources, the scientists, and the ambition to succeed in space. Russia and China plan to build an International Lunar Research Station on the surface of the moon and/or in the moon’s orbit by 2035.

Up-and-coming space nations
Russia, China, and the US are now being joined by other aspiring explorers in space. While the “Big Three” are the main players in space, many others are looking to increase their presence and have established space agencies. Marshall refers to European countries, the UK, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia, and countries in the Middle East and Africa, but notes that none of them look “anywhere near ready to challenge the status of the Big Three space powers.”

Marshall details the potential contributions of these up-and-comers to knowledge and human welfare. But he also outlines ways in which their competition in space could trigger wars that endanger all of humanity. However, we may not have much choice in the matter. As Stephen Hawking said, “I am convinced that humans need to leave Earth. Spreading out may be the only thing that saves us from ourselves.”

The Future of Geography is a very serious and engaging book. Everyone interested in understanding the future role of space would do well to read it.

Marshall, Tim. The Future of Geography: How Power and Politics in Space Will Change Our World. Elliott and Thompson, 2024.

Date June 11, 2025

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