Another year has come and almost gone. Now it’s time to make those New Year’s resolutions, right? Well, my record for keeping resolutions is easily beatable—it’s typically one week. Giving up Starbucks (as if), giving up sugar (an even bigger as if). You get the idea.
Economists don’t make resolutions. They make predictions—predictions about interest rates, economic growth, unemployment rates. But, when all is said and done, their predictions are a lot like my resolutions—they don’t always come to pass. I’ve heard it said that economists are one of the few professions that get paid to “get things wrong.”
But let’s focus on the positive for the year ahead.
In our 2016 predictions story, six leading economists predict a median real GDP growth of 2.1 percent in 2016, up from 1.2 percent in 2015. That’s promising.
The median forecast for the Canadian dollar is US$0.76, and for the Canadian 10-year government bond yield, 2.30 percent. Still promising.
And speakers at the 58th Annual CFA Forecast Dinner in October also moved into prediction mode: from speaking about the continuing increase in shareholder activism and forecasting a positive growth for China to creating a dynamic economy in Ontario. All uplifting.
In the meantime, if you don’t wish to make predictions or resolutions or wish away the year, why not look back? This month’s Books for Business offers some enjoyable reads for the armchair historian.
Find out how a 17th-century tontine works, or discover the 50 most colourful characters in the history of finance.
Or, if you like your history more recent, read up on the multi-billion-dollar Star Wars franchise.
As I mentioned, any resolutions I do make will not hold past the Boxing Week sales. Let’s hope the prognosticators do a whole lot better—and actually get paid because they got it right.
All the best to you and yours for the New Year. Enjoy the issue, and, as always, write to us with your comments and story ideas.