How Big Things Get Done - CFA Society Toronto

Bent Flyvbjerg is the world’s most-cited expert on megaprojects and a statistical realist in a field too often fueled by vision over rigour. In How Big Things Get Done, co-authored with journalist Dan Gardner, Flyvbjerg draws from a dataset of more than 16,000 projects across 136 countries to uncover the “Iron Law of Megaprojects”: a grim pattern of large-scale undertakings being over-budget, overdue, and underdelivered. The book offers a sobering critique of how big things often go wrong and a compelling playbook for getting them right.

Contrasts in project outcomes

The book opens with a tale of California’s high-speed rail debacle, which is a visionary promise of ultra-fast transport that has become, as he dryly notes, a “bullet train to nowhere” with soaring costs and no completion in sight. In contrast, he showcases the understated success of Nepal’s school building program, which delivered 20,000 earthquake-resilient classrooms on budget and ahead of schedule. Why do some projects spiral out of control while others quietly overdeliver?

The roots of success and failure

The answer lies in cognitive bias, flawed planning models, and a lack of grounding in real world data. The authors argue persuasively for a “think slow, act fast” model. In other words: deeply understand the problem and plan with precision before breaking ground. This Pixar-style planning contrasts with Silicon Valley’s “move fast and break things” ethos. The book’s structure reinforces this heuristic, moving from psychological pitfalls to operational principles with great illustrative case studies in between.

Lessons for finance and angel investing

So, what does this have to do with finance and, more specifically, with the evolving world of entrepreneurial finance, the focus of this issue of The Analyst. A lot. For those who evaluate early-stage ventures or infrastructure-scale investments, the book offers practical insights for underwriting not only financial return, but delivery feasibility.

For angel investors, like any project manager, one must balance vision with execution. They are constantly evaluating which startups to back and, by extension, which founders have the operational discipline and mindset to deliver. Flyvbjerg’s work offers a toolkit for assessing not just product-market fit or financial runway, but executional probability. Investors looking to reduce their own exposure to “black swan” failures can apply these lessons in underwriting.

For example, the concept of reference class forecasting is introduced midway through the book. This method anchors planning in actual historical outcomes of similar projects, effectively benchmarking against past performance rather than relying on founder assumptions or blue-sky projections. For angels assessing startup business plans, this approach could replace speculative spreadsheets with empirical base rates. The book also explains why modularity—breaking big ideas into Lego-like components—is not only a design principle but a risk-management strategy. In startup ecosystems, where pivots are common, this becomes a competitive advantage.

Challenging popular narratives

Flyvbjerg’s empirical lens challenges the myth of the visionary hero. Projects that succeed tend to do so not because of charismatic leaders or bold ideas, but because of disciplined planning, accurate budgeting, and transparent feedback loops. This runs counter to much of the popular narrative in venture capital, where storytelling can eclipse substance.

Insights from energy and infrastructure

As someone who has focused on the intersection of finance and infrastructure— particularly in the nuclear energy and mining sectors—I find Flyvbjerg’s conclusions painfully resonant. Canada’s nuclear sector is entering a new build era after decades of dormancy, and the global appetite for clean energy has revived interest in megaprojects like the Darlington small modular reactors and the refurbishment of aging assets. Yet the historical track record of nuclear

construction is sobering. Cost overruns, delays, and underperformance have plagued even the most well-intentioned programs, often with political consequences. The Iron Law of Megaprojects applies all too well. The same is true for mining projects, particularly in Canada’s North, which tend to be capital- intensive and jurisdictionally complex.

These ventures often underestimate logistical and environmental risks.

Understanding and managing risk

One particularly relevant lesson for early stage investors is the idea of the “fat-tail” risk curve. The book reveals that project outcomes follow fat-tailed distributions, meaning most risks are underestimated, and when things go wrong, they can go catastrophically wrong. For angel investors deploying personal capital across a portfolio of high-risk ventures, recognizing and mitigating fat-tailed outcomes is essential. It’s not enough to have a gut feeling or a “unicorn” instinct. Rigour matters.

Conclusion: A manual for executional realism

At its core, How Big Things Get Done is a call for executional realism: a mindset that combines data with humility. The book offers more than project management advice; it provides a framework through which to evaluate leadership, systems design, and operational scalability.

The tone occasionally veers toward the didactic; however, it’s balanced by a wealth of case studies that bring the lessons to life, including the Empire State Building’s rapid construction, Apple’s lightning-fast iPod development, Amazon’s Prime launch, and disaster projects like Scotland’s Parliament building. The examples are global, interdisciplinary, and deeply relevant.

In a time when capital is constrained and operational discipline is increasingly rare, How Big Things Get Done is an essential read. It teaches that good ideas are not enough. Execution is everything, and it’s not magic. It’s measurable, teachable, and even investable. Flyvbjerg and Gardner provide the missing manual for bridging the gap between vision and execution.