In hindsight, there couldn’t have been a better time for the forum, as industry professionals engaged in lively discussions trying to digest the news and grapple with its implications. Market volatility was off the charts that day, and no one had a clear perspective on how the unexpected regime change would impact their investment decisions.
In the end, forum presenters helped to establish an atmosphere in the room of greater serenity, with their objective and logical analyses of what really matters: the fundamentals.
Leading off was Brian Johnston, chief operating officer of Mattamy Homes, the largest private homebuilder in North America, with a discussion of the factors underscoring the strength of the U.S. and Canadian markets. As different as these two economies are, the facts he presented clearly illustrated bright long-term prospects not only for Mattamy, but for the entire homebuilding industry in North America. Johnston addressed the growing concerns of the Canadian market by highlighting regional differences in home prices. He also explained how supply constraints, particularly in Ontario, are supporting price appreciation, despite efforts by the federal government to tighten lending standards.
South of the border, Johnson said, the growth looks more robust, with the housing market in the U.S. is coming off cyclical lows with rising sales, and most markets still well below their peaks.
Johnson certainly infused some optimism into the audience, creating a calmer atmosphere that remained through a discussion of alternative assets by Robert Boston, a partner in the investment consulting practice at Morneau Shepell.
Remembering the lessons from the 2008 financial crisis, Boston stressed the importance of downside protection, risk management, matching assets to liabilities, and diversification. But, to meet all those needs, should institutional investors just pile into bonds? Not according to Boston. Given the current interest rate environment, and with yields at historical lows, traditional fixed investments have failed to meet the requirements of institutional investors. This failure becomes more pronounced considering the upward trajectory of future interest rates.
Instead of piling into riskier debt and other volatile assets in search for yield, institutional investors should consider certain types of alternative investments, Boston said. Although alternatives carry a liquidity risk premium, they generally have a lower correlation relative to traditional asset classes and chase absolute return targets rather than trying to beat a benchmark. On the flip side, funds specializing in alternative assets tend to charge higher fees and use more leverage. Nevertheless, Boston pointed to the results of a recent Preqin survey as evidence that large institutional investors are increasing their allocations to alternative assets.
The Preqin survey also highlighted the growing importance of private equity, private debt, real estate, infrastructure, and natural resources. These asset classes are widely established, but Boston made the case for two other types of investments that don’t get much attention: water entitlements, or perpetual water rights, that generate income based on the volume of water allocation; and agricultural space opportunities, either with a focus on infrastructure in the agricultural supply chain or with a private equity-type structure to support agricultural-based businesses. Overall, for institutional investors, these types of illiquid investments all provide a higher risk-adjusted return profile than traditional investments.
By the end of the forum, attendees clearly had a better appreciation and understanding of these illiquid investments. More importantly, however, presenters were echoing the tone of optimism set by Warren Buffett after the results of the U.S. election, with his focus on the long-term growth prospects of the U.S. economy. In essence, the forum provided a much-needed perspective to clear the fog of doom and gloom, and to shift attention back to the objective analysis that industry professionals are known for—regardless of the transient forces that may cloud their judgment.